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David, it would be fairly easy to quantify the numbers/percentage of children not attending Warwick public schools, from what I remember of a quick comparison of 2010 census 15-19 year olds (the standard census age grouping but possible to get a different breakdown), which is a decent approximation of high school aged children, 3000 (approximate enrollment) out of 4800 potential students attend public school, so the number of high school age students to make an assumption on is about 1800. The percentage of children not attending public high schools in Warwick is about 38% and has been steadily increasing since I was in Warwick schools. I would guess there's about 20% that would stay public school if the confidence was there (I agree there will always be a certain % that will choose to send kids to private/Catholic school regardless and a basic comparison to other districts/standards could help inform that assumption or set goals for Warwick). Anyway, I think 900 is a substantial number to think about for future. I personally feel that the increasing percentage of children taking their kids out of public school does directly impact the education and my goal for the schools would be to create strategies to reverse this trend. Students are greatly influenced by their peers and the families I personally know (at least 40 families from my children's elementary school) leave a void in our schools. For my kids, the education in Warwick has been good, I cannot justify abandoning a system I believe in and will continue to support, but their peers become increasing diminished as they get older (strong argument for one high school with many levels/opportunities for all as long as properly sized, staffed, designed, etc.) and I do feel it contributes to the overall educational experience.

I heard those 1% accuracy of projections and those are ok to use as long as the historic trend data they are using continues at same rate...but dangerous, if trends reverse. I only ask because there is no methodology in the documents and having a background in strategic, facility, and demographics, it would be very helpful in my understanding of the process and my comfort level in the analysis. Yes, our population is aging but projecting birth rates and subsequently future enrollment is much more complicated (although I could directly point to experts in our state with the inside knowledge and data analysis tools by census tract) Our population is also becoming much more diverse (with a much higher fertility rate), multiple births are continuing to increase, and its important to consider home owners aging out of independent living and younger families moving into existing homes that impact our schools.

Agree and defer to you on much of the City/school dynamics but regardless of politics, a comprehensive long term plan is never a bad idea, done well, it shouldn't take years...about a year..and in my opinion should have been started years ago... we would be in a much better place today if it had, but never too late...we certainly wouldn't have wasted your and others time in the proposal last year, many of the concerns being voiced regarding the current plan would have been proactively addressed, the public and the school committee would have been informed and engaged throughout the process, and there would be a long term plan which would clearly demonstrate any short term pain/disruption. In my experience, the best way to achieve any significant change is to allow for all affected to be part of the process (by clearly outlining entire process up front and identifying clear decision points for all to provide input...including public and board), describe in detail all analysis and assumptions along the way so that those with valuable insights can actually assist in thoughtful process and all concerns can be addressed throughout process instead of at end, and to be able to communicate a clear vision/long term plan for the future that justifies the change.

From: Comprehensive long-term school plan needed

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