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I did find some projection methodology from when these projections were created (January 2011). What is concerning is that in the LTFPC recommendation, the admin lists the enrollment as of 11/13/13 at 9215 but also included the projection from NESDC for 2013 as 8,588, a difference of 627 students, that is not a 1% difference. It clearly states in the methodology that they generally(not for Warwick) tend to be within 1% when projecting for the next year using current year enrollment. The methodology goes on to say that there are many factors that can greatly influence the accuracy (many of those that are currently occurring in Warwick) and they highly recommend Warwick continually update annual projections as well as to engage in more comprehensive long term projections. Weren't these projections updated for the current recommendation? When these projections the 2010 census data had not yet been finalized, projections should be continually updated as more census info becomes available and to use projections that were off by 627 students going only two years out and not updating them for this recommendation is concerning.

From: Comprehensive long-term school plan needed

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