“It’s good news for now, but watch out next fall.”

That’s the message National Grid spokesman David Graves had for electric customers, who can expect rates to decline in January based on the company’s request of the Public Utilities Commission.

The request is to lower the standard offer customers pay for electricity from the current $0.104 per kilowatt hour (kWh) to $0.089 per kWh, a reduction of 7 or 8 percent as of Jan. 1. Based on a monthly usage of 500 kilowatt-hours, the charge for electricity would drop from $52 to $44.50, a savings of $7.50.

That’s the good news.

But based on the PUC’s action to alter the six-month procurement period on which rates for the standard offer are based, National Grid anticipates that after the nine months, rates will rise, if not soar. Because of the shortage of natural gas during winter months to generate electricity, a result of the high demand at that time and pipeline constrictions, electric prices jump. Previously, the PUC required National Grid to set rates twice a year – January to June and July to December. Since the rate is an average over each six-month period, it included times when rates were high and then significantly lower.

Now the PUC is altering what is called the “procurement” cycle, with those first six months starting October 2016.

Since the fall and winter months are colder, the October to April period is expected to carry a higher rate than the May to September time frame.

“National Grid realizes that while this modest price reduction can be seen as good news, it may be the exception to the winter pricing rule,” Timothy F.Horan, president of National Grid in Rhode Island, said in a statement. “Our region will continue to see price volatility as long as natural gas pipeline constraints during the winter months drive up the cost of electricity for that time of year.”

When the company announced lower natural gas rates as of Nov. 1 late this summer, Graves expected that the company would apply for an increase in electric rates starting Jan. 1.

“That was before I knew that the PUC had ordered us to make a one-time change to the upcoming electric rate period to include all of the summer months when electricity supply is less expensive relative to winter costs,” he said in an email. By extending the rate period to October 2016, the company was able to reduce rates.

“The upcoming, one-time, nine-month price period includes the warmest weather months of the year, when electricity supply prices are lower than during cold weather months. Including pricing from warmer months, helps to offset the higher electricity supply prices that are typical of the colder winter months,” reads the National Grid release.

Tom Kogut, spokesman for the PUC, said Wednesday the commission altered the procurement structure to mirror other states. Also, contrary to the analysis offered by National Grid, Kogut sees the two six-month periods as being able to provide consumers more stable prices. He said that while the October to April period includes the high cost months of January and February, it has “shoulder seasons” of lower prices in the fall and early spring.

Last year, when National Grid came in with a request to raise the standard offer by 25 percent in January 2015, the commission combined the procurement periods in order to come up with an average annual increase of about 14 percent. Now, in order to adopt the new schedule, the standard offer would be for nine months starting with the New Year.

It is argued the nine-months at the lower rate will have a chilling effect on competitive suppliers and that rates will spike when the October 2016 standard rate is set.

“Is getting low rates for customers a bad thing?” asked Kogut. “The folks in this building do a good job at trying to get the best rates.”

Kogut said competitive suppliers could offer different packages, such as locked-in rates for longer periods than the standard offer. Graves advised customers to be informed.

“A lot of people don’t realize they have options,” he said. He urged customers “to shop around, ask questions and do what’s in your best interest.”

In addition to a change in the procurement schedule, the PUC altered provisions for rate filings from 30 to 75 days. Kogut said this should work to the advantage of the customer, as they will have that much longer to consider another supplier before the standard rate changes.