EDITORIAL

No joke, but no illusions

Posted 4/14/15

It says much about Lincoln Chafee’s chances in the 2016 presidential race – and his standing in his home state – that news of his aspirations led most to question whether a late April Fools’ …

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EDITORIAL

No joke, but no illusions

Posted

It says much about Lincoln Chafee’s chances in the 2016 presidential race – and his standing in his home state – that news of his aspirations led most to question whether a late April Fools’ Day joke was being played.

Having left the governor’s office in January, Chafee’s plans for the future were unclear until last week, when he announced he will explore a bid for the Democratic Party’s nomination for the highest office in the land. By all indications, the nascent campaign is anything but a gag for the former Warwick councilman and mayor, U.S. senator and namesake of a marquee family in Rhode Island politics.

“I want to be there in the debates in November, December and January,” he said during an interview with the Warwick Beacon following the announcement. He also intends to begin gauging his prospects on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire and in other battleground states.

That Chafee left the State House under a cloud is no secret. After being elected governor by a plurality in a crowded 2010 election, his popularity lagged throughout his tenure, and in several instances – perhaps most memorably the Christmas tree/holiday tree flap – he drew a great deal of public ire. Indeed, his decision not to seek a new term last year was less about choosing to step aside and more about avoiding a certain, likely humiliating, defeat.

Chafee’s name recognition beyond Rhode Island is virtually nil. After starting out as a Republican, he has over the last several years moved to unaffiliated and then to the Democratic label. He is far from a natural candidate, likely poorly suited to the retail nature of early-stage presidential politics. It would take nothing short of a miracle for him to win the nomination, let alone the general election.

Why run for the presidency then, or even consider it? Increasingly, the Iraq War seems to be the true reason. Chafee voted against authorizing the conflict as a U.S. senator, making him one of only 23 members of the chamber – and the only Republican – opposed to the conflict.

Chafee was, and has remained, a fierce critic of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney over the Iraq conflict and other issues from their time in the White House. He has also reserved some particularly pointed barbs for one of his former legislative colleagues – one who, in perhaps the most anticlimactic announcements in recent memory, just launched her own bid for the White House.

In the recent interview with the Beacon, Chafee said the vote by Hillary Clinton, then a senator from New York, to authorize the use of force in Iraq is one “that you don’t put in the rear view mirror.” He has frequently been even more blunt, saying Clinton’s vote should disqualify her from the presidency.

To this point, no credible challengers to Clinton have emerged in the Democratic field. Those seemingly most likely to enter the race – former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia – face significant challenges in terms of name recognition and ability to challenge Clinton’s fundraising ability and organization. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who describes himself as a Democratic Socialist, is perhaps an even longer shot than Chafee. Vice President Joe Biden’s history as a presidential candidate is one of failure, and he is more frequently joked about in late night talk show monologues than thought of as a truly legitimate aspirant to succeed President Barack Obama.

Lincoln Chafee has the time and resources to mount a campaign, destined to defeat though it may be. He certainly has a strong sense of conviction, trumpeting his record despite the public’s clear rejection of his leadership. Iraq gives him a major bone to pick with his party’s prohibitive favorite and a signature issue on which his position now looks prescient and even courageous.

Keeping Clinton from a full-fledged coronation, it seems, is Chafee’s endgame. Many candidates with little guiding them but their own thinly veiled ambition have launched presidential bids with far less substantive rationales. Often, those deeply flawed hopefuls have been taken far more seriously.

From a Rhode Island perspective, Chafee’s candidacy certainly had an inauspicious start. If nothing else, though – assuming he remains in the race, and gains some small degree of traction – it will be an interesting exercise for a state that typically finds itself on the sidelines in presidential campaigns.

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