COVID-19 CRISIS

THE LATEST: State's COVID-19 model projects up to 4,000 RI deaths by end of October

Nursing homes continue to be hard hit; decision on schools delayed

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The COVID-19 crisis is projected to peak in Rhode Island sometime between late April and early May, according to a model shared publicly for the first time during Gov. Gina Raimondo’s Thursday briefing, while the estimate suggests between 2,000 and 4,000 Rhode Islanders will die as a result of the virus through the end of October.

The unveiling of the state’s model came shortly after the state’s Department of Health announced 18 additional deaths associated with COVID-19 – the largest single-day jump in fatalities to date, but a figure officials said represented deaths that occurred over multiple days.

“Although that is sad, I don’t want folks to panic. It’s consistent with what we’ve expected … I wish we were out of the woods. We’re not quite out of the woods yet,” Raimondo said regarding the death toll related to the virus, which now stands at 105.

The model unveiled by the governor, summarized through a graphic, shows diverging red and blue lines representing the best- and worst-case scenarios in the weeks ahead based on current data.

The red line – which Raimondo said involves a scenario in which Rhode Islanders “stop taking social distancing seriously” – involves an earlier, and much higher, peak. It projects 4,300 hospital beds would be needed on April 27, which would exceed the state’s available capacity.

The blue line – which the governor said assumes the current social distancing restrictions remain in place and “we’re doing a pretty good job of adhering to that” – projects a May 3 peak and the need for 2,250 hospital beds, which would be within the state’s capacity in light of efforts to expand treatment space at hospitals and establish new field hospitals.

During a subsequent conference call with reporters, Raimondo said the best-case scenario based on the model foresees 2,120 deaths from COVID-19 in Rhode Island through the end of October. In the worst-case scenario, that figure would be 4,105 for the same timeframe.

Raimondo has long expressed her hesitation to release modeling projections. She said Thursday: “The reason I’ve been reluctant is because it’s still, it’s not a perfect model … It is not a perfect predictor of where we’re going.” She added, however, that the modeling is “directionally correct,” and the “single biggest variable is the effectiveness of social distancing.”

The governor said the state’s model is based on the work of a roughly 12-person team that includes economists, epidemiologists, data scientists, computer scientists and others. It has been developed in cooperation with Brown University and in consultation with the University of Washington.

Despite the daunting figures involved in the projections, Raimondo on Thursday struck an optimistic tone and said she believes the state’s actual experience in the weeks ahead can be “even better than the blue line.” She noted that a week ago, “that red line looked at lot worse.”

“We are working hard to make sure that we would have that many beds. We’re not quite there yet. But I will say this – I don’t think we’re going to be there … I don’t think we’re going to be the red line. I don’t think that because you’re doing an awesome job with social distancing,” she said.

She added: “My mantra from day one in managing this crisis … has been that we will prepare for the worst and work for the best. So I want you to know, Rhode Island, that’s what we’ve done, and because of it, we’re in pretty good shape … We’re preparing for the worst, but I’m working to beat that blue line. And I want you to do that with me.”

Crisis continues to hit nursing homes hard

Department of Health Director Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott on Thursday said all 18 of the new deaths involved people in congregant settings, specifically nursing homes. To date, 87 of the state’s COVID–19 deaths have involved people in congregant settings, including 84 in nursing homes.

Alexander-Scott said the new deaths include seven people who were in their 70s, seven who were in their 80s and four who were in their 90s. She said nine of the deaths occurred Wednesday, while the other nine occurred in the five to 10 days prior – a lag she attributed to the “challenges going on” in congregant settings and the time required for test results.

“In Rhode Island we are working with all facilities in our congregant care settings to make the lag time as short as possible. But it’s important to understand that there will be some days where we have some of these cases that take time to get confirmed and added to our overall case counts,” the health director said.

A handful of nursing homes have been particularly hard-hit by the pandemic. Golden Crest Nursing Centre in North Providence has seen 24 deaths, while Oak Hill Health & Rehabilitation in Pawtucket has seen 18 deaths. Twenty people from Orchard View Manor in East Providence have died, and five other deaths are associated with Oakland Grove Health Care Center in Woonsocket.

As of Thursday’s update, an additional 309 Rhode Island cases of COVID-19 had been identified, bringing the state’s total to 3,838 since March 1. A total of 28,064 people had been tested across the state as of Thursday, including 24,226 who tested negative for the virus.

The number of Rhode Islanders hospitalized due to COVID-19 also rose Thursday, to 245. Of those patients, 61 were in ICUs and 43 were intubated and on ventilators. A total of 182 people have been discharged from hospitals following treatment for the disease.

The growing caseload continues to come largely from the state’s most populous communities. As of Thursday, Providence had the most cases with 973, followed by Pawtucket with 347 and Cranston with 220. North Providence had 209 cases, followed by East Providence with 159 and Warwick with 141. Johnston had 59 cases, the 11th most in the state.

In another new data announcement, Alexander-Scott said preliminary figures show 45 percent of all COVID-19 cases in Rhode Island are among members of the Latino community – a number that suggests the crisis is hitting that group disproportionately hard.

The health director said work continues with Health Opportunity Zones, nonprofits and other community leaders and groups to conduct outreach efforts.

She added: “Expanding testing to make sure that we are getting data on all of the population is a definite focus.”

Decision on schools delayed

Raimondo said Thursday she will wait until next week to make an anticipated announcement regarding how the state will proceed with K-12 education for the rest of the school year.

Presently, the distance learning approach has been extended through at least the end of April.

“This is a huge decision … It weighs on me, and I want to get it right, the governor said, adding: “I am not willing to throw in the towel yet and say school is out for the rest of the year … So I’m going to hold steady right now for where we are.”

Comments

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  • perky4175

    this is ginas fault if she wasnt running around kissing up to bloomberg she could have gotten a jump on things and by her letting all these people come in from states that hade hi cases of the virus she put rhode islanders lifes at risk

    Friday, April 17, 2020 Report this

  • Honestinfo

    This headline is incorrect. The model is in regards to beds not deaths.

    Friday, April 17, 2020 Report this

  • CravenMoorehead

    4000 deaths?

    Friday, April 17, 2020 Report this

  • FASTFREDWARD4

    you have so many people comeing into and out of this state is a joke. NY CONN back roads from and into westerly. Mass 24 right down 44 right down . Call up 2500 more guards. block and check them.

    Sunday, April 19, 2020 Report this